Gold prices in the afternoon full of action, reasonable allocation of gold assets-音羽かなで

After the gold price on the market is full of momentum, reasonable allocation of gold assets, China fund reporter Zhao Ting after many years of downturn, gold investment ushered in the spring". This year, the United States gold index (GLNC) rose more than 15% of the maximum, the Gold Fund (518800), Huaan (518880) and other domestic gold ETF gold fund is so favored by the funds, for more than a monthly net purchase, the rapid growth of the scale. But last week, the gold price rally, whether the rebound has ended? Chinese fund newspaper reporter interviewed some of the gold fund manager, they believe that the gold in this year despite the shock interval, but the upward pressure on market weakening, the Fed rate hike by the boot floor, the relationship between supply and demand changes and other factors, is expected to have better performance this year will still be asset categories, but investors should also be expected to reduce revenue, control allocation. The outlook on the Fed’s action of gold as a hard currency global circulation, hedging property is quite obvious, in this year, the global stock market in a bleak environment, gold rose is regarded as the money seeking a safe haven. But in Huaan fund index and quantitative division general manager, gold ETF fund manager Xu Zhiyan seems, the main reason for the rise of the gold market before and after the Spring Festival, or last year’s fed hike boots landing. Demand for hedge funds is a secondary factor. Generally speaking, gold and the dollar are two important hedging products in the international financial market, which are often negatively correlated. The Fed raised interest rates, resulting in a strong probability that the dollar strengthened, gold naturally weakened. Xu Zhiyan said that the Fed interest rate hike is the "gold price" trend of "boots", before the "boots" landing, gold prices fell. Last year, after the Fed announced interest rate hike, first, the global economy did not change rapidly, two is the global weak economy is still better, the United States interest rate movements are relatively weak, the dollar weakness factors, gold prices also go up. Some fund managers believe that the Fed’s interest rate hike is still an important factor in determining the price of gold. Cathay Pacific gold ETF fund manager Ai Xiaojun analysis of this, although the fed into the interest rate channel, but in the global economic downturn, the magnitude and frequency of future interest rate will slow down. "In our view, if the Fed is to consider raising interest rates again, it will have to wait until June, which is certainly far lower than expected at the end of last year’s interest rate hike." Ai Xiaojun expresses. Therefore, the price of gold can be relatively strong support. The price of gold stabilized by many factors, in addition to the Fed interest rate hike factor, Ai Xiaojun believes that gold performance is strong, but also affected by the risk aversion and the relationship between supply and demand of gold. Ai Xiaojun said that the current supply and demand of gold has also undergone some changes. Gold output has declined over the last several years, and last year, gold production declined. According to the data released by the China Gold Association, last year, China’s total production of gold 450.053 tons, down 0.39%. Meanwhile, gold consumption reached 985.9 tons, representing an increase of 3.66% over the same period. Ai Xiaojun believes that Chinese is the world’s largest gold producer, China theory

金价后市上行动力充沛 合理配置黄金资产   中国基金报记者 赵婷   历经多年低迷,黄金投资迎来“春天”。今年以来,美黄金指数(GLNC)最高涨幅超过15%,黄金基金(518800)、华安黄金ETF(518880)等国内黄金类基金也因此受到资金青睐,持续一个多月录得净申购,规模迅速增长。   但上周黄金价格出现盘整,反弹行情是否已经结束?中国基金报记者采访部分黄金基金经理,他们认为,黄金在今年虽有区间震荡,但后市上行压力减弱,受到美联储加息靴子落地、供需关系改变等因素影响,预计今年大类资产中仍会有较好表现,但投资者也应降低收益预期,控制配置比例。   后市紧盯美联储动作   黄金作为全球流通的硬通货,避险属性相当明显,在今年开年全球股市一片惨淡的大环境下,黄金的上涨被视为资金寻求避风港的结果。   但在华安基金指数与量化事业部总经理、黄金ETF基金经理许之彦看来,春节前后黄金市场热度上升的主因还是去年美联储加息“靴子”落地。资金避险需求是次要因素。   一般而言,黄金和美元作为国际金融市场两种重要的避险品种,往往是负相关的。而美联储加息则大概率导致美元走强,黄金自然走弱。   许之彦表示,美联储加息是制约黄金价格走势的“靴子”,在“靴子”落地之前,黄金价格有所下跌。去年美联储宣布加息之后,一是全球经济没有迅速变好,二是全球弱势的经济体还比较好,美国加息动作也比较弱,美元走弱因素出现,黄金价格也随之走高。   有基金经理认为,美联储加息动作依然是决定金价的重要影响因素。国泰黄金ETF基金经理艾小军对此分析,尽管美联储进入加息通道,但在全球经济不景气的情况下,未来加息的幅度和频率会放缓。“在我们看来,美联储若考虑再次加息,最早也要等到6月份,从幅度和频率上肯定远远低于去年年底首次加息时的预期。”艾小军表示。因此,黄金价格可获得比较强的支持。   金价企稳受多个因素支撑   除了美联储加息这一因素之外,艾小军认为,黄金表现强势还受避险情绪和黄金供需关系的影响。   艾小军表示,目前黄金的供需关系也发生了一些变化。黄金产量在经过最近很多年持续增长之后,去年黄金产量下降。   根据中国黄金协会公布的数据显示,去年我国累计生产黄金450.053吨,同比下降0.39%。产量下降的同时,同期黄金消费量达985.9吨,同比增幅3.66%。艾小军认为,中国是世界上第一大产金国,中国的一些情况也反映了全球黄金产量的情况。随着前几年黄金价格的大幅下跌,有一些品位较差的金矿开采价值下降,导致部分金矿停产,在他看来,产量下降对黄金价格形成比较强的支撑。   许之彦也对此认为,和全球资产市场相比较,黄金整体体量较小,价格对需求的改变相对敏感,现在全球的黄金需求都在增加,也就凸显了黄金的配置价值。   在全球经济并未好转的情况下,全球市场震荡剧烈,资金避险情绪也支撑了黄金的强势表现。“影响黄金走势的几个因素在短期内都改变不了,因此不会对黄金价格造成较大压力。”许之彦表示。   降低收益预期   就在市场上预期黄金走势一片大好的时候,金价回调给高涨的投资情绪降了降温。   上周,国际现货黄金连续几个交易日下跌,一度跌破1200美元 盎司。对此,艾小军认为,4%左右的回调属于正常现象,未来出现更大幅度的回调可能性较小。就今年来看,黄金价格向下空间较小,但上行空间或在10%~20%之间。   艾小军强调,黄金走势还未进入类似2004年至2011年期间的大幅上涨通道,投资者需要调整投资预期,更多需考虑黄金避险以及对冲人民币可能有的贬值风险,作为资产配置的一环,切不可把所有的资产都押注黄金。   他认为,投资者在资产池里配置10%~20%的黄金资产,长期看对年化收益影响较小,但资产波动性大大降低,这也意味着,风险调整后的收益非常理想。此外,受到各个经济体的相互影响,人民币的贬值压力仍存在,黄金资产可以对冲贬值风险。   许之彦则认为,目前市场上对黄金乐观情绪仍占主流,总体看黄金还有向上的空间。但如果要配置黄金,还需要注意,黄金毕竟还是金融产品,受制于各种因素,价格会出现震荡,投资者需要结合自身承受能力调整配置比例,全部资产押注黄金并不可取。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: